The maize based food systems might experience yield losses from 18-22% by 2050 (IPCC 2014). These outcomes are chiefly temperature, rainfall and world prices for fuels and agriculture. Compared to other reported findings of massive reductions in maize yields in SSA and Malawi 10,30,45,49, our study findings anticipate the decline in future maize yields in Lilongwe District to be moderate. Considering equity issues of large scale climate adaptation decisions for smallholder farmers. This dataset measures climate change impacts on Malawi's water resources. Variability in projections underlines the need for robust decision-making in light of uncertainty to make choices that will perform well regardless of future conditions and, UMFULA aimed to improving the understanding of the. Development plans being made in Malawi (but also elsewhere in the SADC region) comprise critical trade-offs between major investment decisions in irrigation, hydropower and agricultural intensification and the impacts on ecosystem services in the affected areas, among other considerations. Malawi. Climate change poses a significant threat to humanity. Video, Covid: Homeless left struggling for shelter, Zodiac Killer: Code-breakers solve San Francisco killer's cipher, US Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed bid to overturn election, Brexit: UK-EU talks continue as Navy boats put on standby, Alfred Bourgeois: Second death row inmate executed in two days, Prince William and Kate make red carpet debut with royal children, Space tourism: Virgin space plane to fly above new base, FKA twigs sues ex-boyfriend Shia LaBeouf over alleged abuse, Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill, Aztec skull tower: Archaeologists unearth new sections in Mexico City, Ruhollah Zam: Iran executes journalist accused of fanning unrest. Phys Chem Earth 36:1043–1046. The Blantyre City Council’s decision to research turning waste to energy in order to increase energy supply for the city was used as an exemplar to explore the different values that guide decision-making. Malawi is an African country, located south of the Equator, mostly hilly and mountainous, and has a tropical climate (or sub-tropical at high altitudes), with a hot and rainy season from mid-November to April and a relatively cool and dry season from mid-May to mid-August (that is, the austral winter). Learning from climate change perceptions in southern African cities. Given the gravity of Malawi’s susceptibility, there is need to invest in adaptation and mitigation measures to enhance communities resilience. New models, developed as part of FCFA, are now run at extremely high resolution with grid spacing of around 4km (2.5 miles) for the entire continent. 2.0 Impacts of Climate Change in Different Sectors 2.1 Agricultural sector Malawi relies on rain-fed agriculture, and the current droughts have resulted in poor crop yields or total crop failure, leading to serious food shortages, hunger and malnutrition. It is therefore capable of all sorts of surprises, Third, the degree of expected climate change is large. There is considerable spatial variability in climate change impacts in the two countries. For the decades following the 1960s and peaking in 1984, there was a downturn of rainfall of some 30% across the Sahel, which led to famine and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of many millions. Through efforts such as the ongoing Future Climate for Africa (FCFA), a programme funded by the UK's Department for International Development and Natural Environment Research Council, the experience and insights of African climate scientists have led to a discernible jump in our ability to understand and model African climate. draw attention to the need for minimizing undesirable effects in Malawi. Climate change impacts the poorest more than the wealthy. Climate variability and climate change are adversely affecting Malawi through increased temperatures, erratic rainfall, and drought. The African Development Bank has called for $40 Billion USD per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. Africa will be hardest hit by climate change, but has contributed the least to causing that change. Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The currently observed recovery of the rains is projected to continue through the 21st Century, particularly over the central and eastern Sahel. In Zomba district, the region that includes the lake and Kamwendo village, climate change has had profound effects on the economy. Just like other developing countries, climate change is impacting on many Malawians human rights, undercutting their right to health, food, safe drinking water, self determination and privacy and adequate standards of living, most touching fact is that most of these rights violations have fallen on citizens who least contributed to the problem, for example their children who are threatened off their right to life. Examining the impacts of future climate change in Malawi on crops and livelihoods. They are part of a set of young scientists joining the race to set adaptation to climate change in motion before Africa is overwhelmed. With the growth rate of about 2%, Malawi’s population is estimated at 12 million (MDHS 1998). Using secondary data from the Integrated Household Survey (IHS4), a multinomial logit model was fitted to … USAID partners with the Government of Malawi (GoM) and a wide variety of Malawian institutions to advance Malawi’s low-emissions, climate-resilient development. First, African society is very closely coupled with the climate system; hundreds of millions of people depend on rainfall to grow their food, Second, the African climate system is controlled by an extremely complex mix of large-scale weather systems, many from distant parts of the planet and, in comparison with almost all other inhabited regions, is vastly understudied. The definitive aim of this study was to bring to fore the evidence of the importance of tenure considerations in the designing, development, and implementation of climate change programs. Drought is one of the most severe effects of climate change in Malawi. , supported through the FCFA Innovation Fund, provided useful initial insight into the values guiding decision-making in the city, which are largely driven by the mandates of different government sectors. FRACTAL’s research in Blantyre (led by the Polytechnic University of Malawi) had fewer engagements and activities than other FRACTAL cities, instead it focused on the transferability of relevant climate knowledge and lessons. Climate variability and climate change are adversely affecting Malawi through increased temperatures, erratic rainfall, and drought. Climate change: What's it got to do with farming? UMFULA, with government stakeholders, co-produced a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model to project the range of future lake levels between 2021-2050 for Lake Malawi. Malawi The Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Report of 2001 (EAD, 2002b) has clearly indicated that Malawi is experiencing a variety of climatic hazards, which include intense rainfall, floods, seasonal droughts, multi-year droughts, dry spells, cold spells, strong winds, thunderstorms, landslides, hailstorms, mudslides and heat waves, among many others. Such breakthroughs are improbable when you consider that these researchers download massive data sets through cheap Sim cards in their mobile phones and analyse the output overnight. Like many other developing countries, Malawi has not been spared from the severe impacts of climate change. Central Africa, one of three regions on the planet where thunderstorms drive the rest of the planet's tropical and sub-tropical weather systems, lives perilously close to the rainfall minimum needed to support the world's second largest rainforest system. This economic figure is a result of Zambia having over 20,000 km of roads which is three times the amount of either of the other two countries. In this regard, Integrated Water Supply System has proved to be key towards improving community members’ well-being and economic growth. CEP MSc Environmental Technology graduate Tilele Stevens warns about future climate change effects on Malawi's food security, including maize farming. Impacts of climate change on Malawi’s agricultural system and food security. This can and must change and Scotland has a chance to be at the forefront of this change. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. Climate change training increased the probability of farmers using improved varieties by 4% and irrigation by 22% (largely because the major effect of climate change in Malawi has been dry spells and droughts). Apart from causing the lack of access to water supply, drought derails the economic progress for communities. Scenarios Process This workshop was the first scenario building process experience for all of the participants. FRACTAL aims to explore the decision-making process in southern African cities, and to support how cities respond to the. Maize yields have … Project outputs . A Malawi Economic Vulnerability and Disaster Risk Assessment was conducted to better understand the socio-economic effects of disasters. The definitive aim of this study was to bring to fore the evidence of the importance of tenure considerations in the designing, development, and implementation of climate change programs. In Malawi, climate change effects are felt by the whole population. Exploring perspectives that underpin decisions for southern African urban development Insights from Blantyre, Malawi. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, and on socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones. Maize farming covers over 92 % of Malawi’s agricultural land and contributes over 54 % of national caloric intake. Climate change in Africa will lead to food insecurity, displacement of Indigenous persons, as well as increased famine, drought, and floods. UMFULA aims to improve climate information for medium-term (5-40 year) decision-making in the water-energy-food nexus in central and southern Africa, with a particular focus on Tanzania and Malawi. In collaborative efforts we are working intensely hard to improve climate prediction. Climate science was woven into these narratives to surface possible. The region is almost completely devoid of weather measurements yet it is a key driver of the West African monsoon system, which brings three months of rain that interrupts the nine-month long dry season across the Sahel region, south of the desert. In Malawi, for example, total precipitation is expected to increase over the coming years. While little research exists to prove an explicit link in Malawi, it is also expected that climate change will have negative human health impacts through increased incidence of malaria, cholera and diarrhoea (Irish Aid, 2015). Climate change is an area where international action and co-operation are vital. The effects of climate change on smallholder agriculture under different crop technologies, namely conservation agriculture, Falbedia albida, optimal fertilisation and intensive farming, were analysed against the conventional subsistence farming in Malawi. presents the outcomes of an original assessment of climate change impacts on . adapt to the effects of climate change that are happening now and will worsen in the future. In some regions of Africa, like Malawi, climate change can also lead to landslides, hailstorms, and mudslides. Located in the east part of southern Africa, Malawi is a Least Developed Country with a huge poverty challenge. WHAT IS THE DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY APPROACH? Provided key findings to members of the National Planning Commission of Malawi. NEW: Building research capacity in Early Career Researchers With an economy highly dependent on climate-vulnerable natural resources and minimal access to electricity, Malawi seeks to improve the lives and livelihoods of its 15 million people by strengthening climate change and risk management and expanding domestic renewable energy solutions. Standard global climate models can only represent these key systems indirectly but the new models are capable of representing thunderstorms systems adequately for the first time. Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Climate impacts are felt globally, but wherever we are, our ability to cope depends on what is in our purse. It is a matter of social justice that we succeed. A think tank workshop , supported through the FCFA Innovation Fund, provided useful initial insight into the values guiding decision-making in the city, which are largely driven by the mandates of different government sectors. Figure 1 provides a general schematic of the methods employed for this assessment of climate change impacts in Malawi. and the pressures of rapid social, economic, and environmental change. Contributing to national policy processes in Malawi: Made presentations to the National Technical and Steering Committees on. The significant threat which climate change poses to agricultural production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa is now widely recognised (Calzadilla et al. Emerging from one of those rapidly warming oceans, tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth in March and April 2019 destroyed parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi, with Kenneth following a particularly unusual path over Tanzania. Such extremes are associated with higher rates of infant mortality due to malnutrition and chronic illness associated with malaria, cholera and diarrhoea. Climate change: Last decade 'on course' to be warmest, Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed election lawsuit. Close collaborations with partners in the Shire River Basin allowed co- exploration of adaptation options for robust decision-making. Malawi’s Constitution Doesn’t Back Sexual Minorities-Report - Sunday, 25 October 2020 13:48. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, the effect of climate change on the road infrastructure of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. By day, they keep the first Lidar system in central Africa running. From a physical perspective, the book covers such topics as population pressures, food issues, rising sea-levels and coastline degradation, and health. The large uncertainty around future climate change in the region remains a barrier to adaptation planning. It is a threat which can only be tackled with immediate global action. Covid: Homeless left struggling for shelter. The results point unambiguously to an increase in both rainfall intensity and the length of dry spells, and we have strong reason to believe them. Temperatures there are predicted to rise by five degrees or more, particularly in the parts of Namibia, Botswana and Zambia that are already intolerably hot. Hybrid maize for example, has been promoted in Malawi since the early 1970s, supported through a However, in southern parts The impacts of climate change are likely to be considerable in tropical regions. The wealthy have funds or insurance to cover a quick retreat to safety, temporary accommodation, and rebuilding or relocation costs. This observed change sits uncomfortably next to predictions of a wetter future in the same season - a problem scientists have termed the East African Climate Paradox. The Shire River Basin is a major outflow of Lake Malawi and is a vital source of hydropower, irrigation, and biodiversity. Climate science was woven into these narratives to surface possible impacts of climate change in Malawi and the city of Blantyre. The results also show that climate change training increased the probability of engaging in livestock rearing by 4% and off-farm business by 4%. This allows decision-makers to determine priorities (which could be minimising losses, or maximising potential gains, for example) while factoring in the uncertainties about future climate projections. Multiple effects of climate change could drive an estimated 65 to 129 million people into poverty in the same period. The analytical study indicated that annual flood damage in the Shire River Basin resulted in an average loss of 0.7% of GDP ($9 million) per year. .css-po6dm6-ItalicText{font-style:italic;}Richard Washington is a professor of climate science at the School of Geography and the Environment at Oxford University in the UK. what have we learned? However, due to high population growth, rapid deforestation, and widespread soil erosion, Malawi’s agriculturally-based economy is particularly susceptible to climate change’s negative consequences. African climate is replete with complexity and marvels. Instead, to make adaptive decisions that reduce. No matter their age, gender or location, people throughout the country are experiencing increased temperatures, irregular rainfall patterns and unpredictable weather, causing flooding and droughts which has detrimental effects on people and livelihoods. Although this has been influenced by climate change, it has also been encouraged through government policies to intensify maize production. Elsewhere in the country, drought caused an average economic loss of 1% annually ($13 million). This is part of the approach we are adopting - to find out exactly how the models simulate the changing weather. This study analyzed the factors influencing different choices of climate change adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers in Malawi. A Malawi Economic Vulnerability and Disaster Risk Assessment was conducted to better understand the socio-economic effects of disasters. It is a threat which can only be tackled with immediate global action. At the country level, the results showed a – 5.4 % to + 24.6 % change in annual rainfall, a − 5.0 % to + 3.1 % change in annual evapotranspiration, from – 7.5 % to over + 50 % change in annual surface runoff and water yield, and up to an 11.5% increase in annual soil moisture. Article Google Scholar Chinsinga B (2011) Seeds and subsidies: the political economy of input programmes in Malawi. Malawi faces more intense and frequent climate-related disasters including floods, droughts, and extreme weather events that threaten loss of life, assets, and food security. The most serious ones have been dry spells, seasonal droughts, intense rainfall, riverine floods and flash floods. This project enables the Government of Malawi to climate-proof the policies, strategies and plans of the sectors of the economy most directly affected by climate change. Scenarios Process This workshop was the first scenario building process experience for all of the participants. .css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link{color:inherit;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited{color:#696969;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link:hover,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited:hover,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link:focus,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited:focus{color:#B80000;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link::after,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited::after{content:'';position:absolute;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;left:0;z-index:2;}Climate change: What's it got to do with farming? A participatory video by subsistence farmers on the effects of climate change in Malawi. Instead, to make adaptive decisions that reduce climate risk in Malawi, we can investigate the implications of a range of potential outcomes. We have new insights brought through that scientific ingenuity. Apart from causing the lack of access to water supply, drought derails the economic progress for communities. © 2020 BBC. presentation2 on the effects of climate change in Malawi. However, the large number of roads translates to maintenance savings as Zambia contains a significant … Investigating relevant climate metrics and identifying viable adaptation options for tea production in Malawi as part of the joint UMFULA and HyCRISTAL CI4Tea project. 2.0 Impacts of Climate Change in Different Sectors 2.1 Agricultural sector Malawi relies on rain-fed agriculture, and the current droughts have resulted in poor crop yields or total crop failure, leading to serious food shortages, hunger and malnutrition. The new factor is climate change, says Mac Bain Mkandawire, executive director of Youth Net and Counselling, which campaigns for the rights of women and children from its base in Zomba, Malawi. Read more about FCFA's capacity development activitie…, NEW: FCFA Podcast - the African climate breakdown In this regard, Integrated Water Supply System has proved to be key towards improving community members’ well-being and economic growth. UMFULA applied a Decision-Making under Uncertainty approach in Lake Malawi and the Shire River Basin to look at the energy-water-food nexus. With an economy highly dependent on climate-vulnerable natural resources and minimal access to electricity, Malawi seeks to improve the lives and livelihoods of its 15 million people by strengthening climate change and risk management and expanding domestic renewable energy solutions. How can we improve the use of information for a climate-resilient Malawi? This allows decision-makers to determine priorities (which could be minimising losses, or maximising potential gains, for example) while factoring in the uncertainties about future climate projections. Is Africa sleepwalking into a potential catastrophe? impacts of climate change on rain-fed and irrigated rice in Malawi, a country where rice is one of the most important food crops for sustaining rural livelihoods. The reports highlighted Malawi’s vulnerability to impacts of climate change in the key socio economic sectors. What does this mean for us going forward?. Already, temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns are harming agricultural growth. The African continent will be hardest hit by climate change. But on the scientific front there is hope. In Malawi, for example, total precipitation is expected to increase over the coming years. The rainfall arrives in shorter bursts, causing more runoff and longer dry-spells in between. Provided input to the draft National Resilience Strategy and its implementation plan in Malawi. In this 2nd episode, we explore how, FCFA’s research in Malawi was carried out by, in Lake Malawi and the Shire River Basin. Balancing inclusivity and progress, the challenge for Blantyre City development. Malawi is a relatively low The analytical study indicated that annual flood damage in the Shire River Basin resulted in an average loss of 0.7% of GDP ($9 million) per year. Agriculture is the primary source of income in Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. The analysis also provides an important contribution to the limited evidence base on climate impacts in Africa more generally and will support programmes to promote adaptation policies for sustainable agricultural development. Countries like Malawi have a heavy dependence on natural resources and rains. Malawi’s vulnerability to climate change is further exacerbated by high population growth and extensive tree and forest loss driven primarily by demand for wood fuels—especially urban Malawi’s demand for charcoal. Even a little less rainfall in the future could endanger the forest and its massive carbon store. Central to that rainfall change is the behaviour of thunderstorms, which deliver around 70% of African rain. The spread of HIV/AIDS in turn weakens people’s ability to respond to the changing climate.Oxfam Malawi Country Director, Sanjay Awasthi, said:“Despite the fact that Malawi’s greenhouse gas emissions are minuscule, climate change is hitting poor countries like Malawi first and worst and people are suffering, especially women. , we can investigate the implications of a range of potential outcomes. At a country level, Zambia incurs more than double the potential economic impacts from climate change than either Malawi or Mozambique. When it comes to tackling climate change to prevent the impacts it causes in the different systems of the planet, the human being applies two types of measures: mitigation and adaptation.. Mitigation measures are those actions that are taken to reduce and curb greenhouse gas emissions, while adaptation measures are based on reducing vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The current and future climate of central and southern Africa: What we have learnt and what it means for decision-making in Malawi and Tanzania  – UMFULA Key publication. From an extremely modestly resourced lab in Cameroon, for example, Wilfried Pokam and his team of researchers are exposing the way that the central African climate system and southern Africa are linked, thereby breaking the mould of our stubborn piecemeal, regional view of the continent's climate system. The flood plains, wetlands, and forests of the Lower Shire Valley are particularly vulnerable to climate change, with drought and flood disasters currently directly affecting over half a million people. People had to flee their homes and crop fields were washed out, leaving the soil without seeds to … Read about our approach to external linking. so under the impacts of climate change – although changes in the total volume of rainfall is uncertain. This was done by analyzing how land tenure affects the use of adaptation strategies in Malawi. Food security in Malawi is largely defined by the availability of maize or ’ nsima ’– the staple food. We know remarkably little about that climate system - it is scarcely even monitored - there are more reporting rain gauges in the UK county of Oxfordshire than the entire Congo Basin. The aim is to provide country offices with a good evidence base and specific guidance on activities, barriers and opportunities for integrating climate change and climate smart agriculture approaches within the national context. The biophysical effects of climate change on agriculture induce changes in production and prices, altering crop mix, input use, production, food demand, food consumption, and trade. Meanwhile over Kenya and Tanzania, the long rains from March to May start later and end sooner - leading to an overall decrease in rainfall. Africa will be hardest hit by climate change, but has contributed the least to causing that change. UMFULA aims to improve climate information for medium-term (5-40 year) decision-making in the water-energy-food nexus in central and southern Africa, with a particular focus on Tanzania and Malawi. 2013; IPCC 2014; Challinor et al. About 85% of the population is based in rural areas with women forming 51% of the population and life expectancy as low as 40 years. There is less clarity about the medium to long term impacts of climate change on precipitation. This paper. Representatives from Blantyre and Harare also teamed up to. .css-1xgx53b-Link{font-family:ReithSans,Helvetica,Arial,freesans,sans-serif;font-weight:700;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:#FFFFFF;}.css-1xgx53b-Link:hover,.css-1xgx53b-Link:focus{-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}Read about our approach to external linking. In exactly a year’s time, landmark global climate talks – called COP26 – will be happening in Glasgow. Malawi. Africa's complex climate system is, unusually, influenced by the three main global ocean basins. Climate Risk Narratives: envisioning possible futures for your city. In southern Africa we are seeing a delay in the onset and a drying of early summer rains, which is predicted to worsen in forthcoming decades. This means they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Protecting lives and livelihoods in Malawi from climate-related disasters by providing early warning weather and climate information systems and improving the resilience of vulnerable communities. While both countries are expected to see rapidly rising temperatures, changes in precipitation will vary widely depending on location. Under a business as usual scenario, greenhouse gas emissions could rise by 25–90 per cent by 2030 relative to 2000 and the Earth could warm by 3°C this century. What does Africa want from the UN climate summit? Flooding has also severely disrupted food production in several districts of the country. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. In the last two decades, Malawi has experienced a number of adverse climatic hazards. The biophysical effects of climate change on agriculture induce changes in production and prices, altering crop mix, input use, production, food demand, food consumption, and trade. In view of the likely impacts of climate change, the great importance of adaptation (‘adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects ... Chidanti-Malunga J (2011) Adaptive strategies to climate change in Southern Malawi. In the rainy season of 2014 – 2015, heavy floods hit the southern region. A different approach to develop climate risk narratives is being trialled in Blantyre, Gaborone and Harare: researchers and stakeholders from these cities initially developed a set of narratives of the cities’ socio-economic future, into which researchers integrated climate information. Access to clean water becomes crucial for survival in the dry season. 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